I Actually Buy The Paper

Expert Estimates Of Probability Are Often Off By Factors Of Hundreds Or Thousands. [...] I Used To Be Annoyed When The Margin Of Error Was High In A Forecasting Model That I Might Put Together. Now I View It As Perhaps The Single Most Important Piece Of Information That A Forecaster Provides. When We Publish A Forecast On Fivethirtyeight, I Go To Great Lengths To Document The Uncertainty Attached To It, Even If The Uncertainty Is Sufficiently Large That The Forecast Won't Make For Punchy Headlines.

To My Friends, I’m Kind Of Sexually Gay But Ethnically Straight.

Distinguishing The Signal From The Noise Requires Both Scientific Knowledge And Self-knowledge.

Finding Patterns Is Easy In Any Kind Of Data-rich Environment; That's What Mediocre Gamblers Do. The Key Is In Determining Whether The Patterns Represent Signal Or Noise

I Have To Make Sure That I Make Good Choices And That If I Put My Name On It, It's A High-quality Endeavor And That I Have Time To Be A Human Being.