I'm A Better Economist Than

Given Our Inevitably Incomplete Knowledge About Key Structural Aspects Of Our Ever-changing Economy And The Sometimes Asymmetric Costs Or Benefits Of Particular Outcomes, A Central Bank... Need To Consider Not Only The Most Likely Future Path For The Economy But Also The Distribution Of Possible Outcomes About That Path. They Then Need To Reach A Judgment About The Probabilities, Costs, And Benefits Of The Various Possible Outcomes Under Alternative Choices For Policy.

No Matter How Skillful The Trading Scheme, Over The Long Haul, Abnormal Returns Are Sustained Only Through Abnormal Exposure To Risk.

We Cannot Rule Out A Situation In Which A Preemptive Policy Tightening Becomes Necessary, ... Such Caution Seems Especially Warranted With Regard To The Sharp Rise In Equity Prices During The Past Two Years. These Gains Have Obviously Raised Questions Of Sustainability.

The Only Sustainable Way To Increase Demand For Vacant Houses Is To Spur The Formation Of New Households. Admitting More Skilled Immigrants, Who Tend To Earn Enough To Buy Homes, Would Accomplish That While Paying Other Dividends To The U.s. Economy.

Regulation Of Derivatives Transactions That Are Privately Negotiated By Professionals Is Unnecessary.