It's Not A Case Of:

You Should Not Take Your Intuitions At Face Value.

... Sometimes When You Are Asked A Question That Is Difficult, The Mind Doesn't Stay Silent If It Doesn't Have The Answer. The Mind Produces Something, And What It Produces Very Characteristically Is The Answer To An Easier But Related Question.

There Are Domains In Which Expertise Is Not Possible. Stock Picking Is A Good Example. And In Long-term Political Strategic Forecasting, It's Been Shown That Experts Are Just Not Better Than A Dice-throwing Monkey.

Most People Are Highly Optimistic Most Of The Time.

So Your Emotional State Really Has A Lot To Do With What You're Thinking About And What You're Paying Attention To.