The Premise Of This Book

Intuitive Diagnosis Is Reliable When People Have A Lot Of Relevant Feedback. But People Are Very Often Willing To Make Intuitive Diagnoses Even When They're Very Likely To Be Wrong.

... Sometimes When You Are Asked A Question That Is Difficult, The Mind Doesn't Stay Silent If It Doesn't Have The Answer. The Mind Produces Something, And What It Produces Very Characteristically Is The Answer To An Easier But Related Question.

There Is General Agreement Among Researchers That Nearly All Stock Pickers, Whether They Know It Or Not-and Few Of Them Do-are Playing A Game Of Chance.

We Have A Very Narrow View Of What Is Going On.

Our Comforting Conviction That The World Makes Sense Rests On A Secure Foundation: Our Almost Unlimited Ability To Ignore Our Ignorance.