When Human Judgment And Big

If You Aren't Taking A Representative Sample, You Won't Get A Representative Snapshot.

Precise Forecasts Masquerade As Accurate Ones.

I Think Punditry Serves No Purpose.

The Thing That People Associate With Expertise, Authoritativeness, Kind Of With A Capital 'a,' Don't Correlate Very Well With Who's Actually Good At Making Predictions.

To Be A Very, Very Minor, Eighth-tier Celebrity, You Realize, 'hey, Celebrities Are Just Like Us.'