You Don't Want To Influence

Remember, The Congress Doesn't Get As Many Opportunities To Make An Impression With The Public.

Expert Estimates Of Probability Are Often Off By Factors Of Hundreds Or Thousands. [...] I Used To Be Annoyed When The Margin Of Error Was High In A Forecasting Model That I Might Put Together. Now I View It As Perhaps The Single Most Important Piece Of Information That A Forecaster Provides. When We Publish A Forecast On Fivethirtyeight, I Go To Great Lengths To Document The Uncertainty Attached To It, Even If The Uncertainty Is Sufficiently Large That The Forecast Won't Make For Punchy Headlines.

I Have To Think About How To Not Spread Myself Too Thin. It's A Really Great Problem To Have.

Well The Way We Perceive Accuracy And What Accuracy Is Statistically Are Really Two Different Things.

Racism Is Predictable. It's Predicted By Interaction Or Lack Thereof With People Unlike You, People Of Other Races.