People Attach Too Much Importance

The Problem Is That When Polls Are Wrong, They Tend To Be Wrong In The Same Direction. If They Miss In New Hampshire, For Instance, They All Miss On The Same Mistake.

We Speak For Them. We Imbue Them With Meaning.

To The Extent That You Can Find Ways Where You're Making Predictions, There's No Substitute For Testing Yourself On Real-world Situations That You Don't Know The Answer To In Advance.

When Human Judgment And Big Data Intersect There Are Some Funny Things That Happen

Not Only Does Political Coverage Often Lose The Signal—it Frequently Accentuates The Noise.